1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon match summary and prediction — UEFA Europa League
Our model makes 1899 Hoffenheim the pick at 47% for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
1899 Hoffenheim host Lyon on 22 October 2026 at SNP Arena, Sinsheim. 1899 Hoffenheim are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This league stage 3 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as 1899 Hoffenheim - Lyon. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
1899 Hoffenheim: they come in on four defeats in a row, following one win before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (61 scored and 52 conceded in 31 matches, 1.97 and 1.68 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.2 out of 100, and they sit 30th on a goal difference of -3.
Lyon: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (60 scored and 43 conceded in 40 matches, 1.5 and 1.07 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.5 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | 1899 Hoffenheim | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 30th | 8th |
| Goal difference | -3 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLW | WLWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 12 | 10 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 31 | 40 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.97 / 1.68 | 1.5 / 1.07 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.74 | 1.85 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 24.2 | 45.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 12% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim 24.2 versus Lyon 45.5, a gap of 21.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 22 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 38%.
- First goal: Leans 1899 Hoffenheim's way at 66%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards 1899 Hoffenheim at 47%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Lyon's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts 1899 Hoffenheim's way, especially at SNP Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: 1899 Hoffenheim or Lyon?
1899 Hoffenheim, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% 1899 Hoffenheim, 41% the draw and 12% Lyon.
When and where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon being played?
22 October 2026 at SNP Arena, Sinsheim, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between 1899 Hoffenheim and Lyon?
1899 Hoffenheim 2-2 Lyon on 07 November 2024.
What is the recent form of 1899 Hoffenheim and Lyon?
1899 Hoffenheim have taken 3 points from their last five (LLLLW), Lyon 10 from theirs (WLWWD). Most recently 1899 Hoffenheim took a 2-3 defeat at home to Beşiktaş and Lyon a 3-2 win at home to Crystal Palace.
How many goals are expected in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.60 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.00 for Lyon. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 38%, so its call is no.