Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Anderlecht travel to Jagiellonia needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 29th and still looking for rhythm. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
Match summary
Anderlecht travel to Jagiellonia on 22 October 2026 at Chorten Arena, Bialystok. Jagiellonia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 61%. This league stage 3 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as Jagiellonia - Anderlecht. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Jagiellonia: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 22 conceded in 19 matches, 1.47 and 1.16 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.2 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of +1.
Anderlecht: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 38 conceded in 19 matches, 1.47 and 2.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.5 out of 100, and they sit 29th on a goal difference of -2. For a club of Anderlecht's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Jagiellonia | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 29th |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLWL | LWWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 9 | 9 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 19 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.47 / 1.16 | 1.47 / 2.0 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.58 | 0.89 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.2 | 24.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 61% | 8% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Jagiellonia 35.2 versus Anderlecht 24.5, a gap of 10.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Anderlecht are 29th with a goal difference of -2 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Table gap: Twelve places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.50, over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 40%.
- First goal: Leans Jagiellonia's way at 73%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Jagiellonia at 61%, a gap of 29 percentage points to the next outcome. Jagiellonia's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Jagiellonia's way, especially at Chorten Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Jagiellonia or Anderlecht?
Jagiellonia, with an implied win probability of roughly 61%. The full split is 61% Jagiellonia, 31% the draw and 8% Anderlecht.
When and where is Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht being played?
22 October 2026 at Chorten Arena, Bialystok, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Jagiellonia and Anderlecht met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Jagiellonia and Anderlecht?
Jagiellonia have taken 6 points from their last five (WLLWL), Anderlecht 9 from theirs (LWWWL). Most recently Jagiellonia took a 3-1 win at home to Ararat-Armenia and Anderlecht a 0-1 defeat away at Dinamo Zagreb.
How many goals are expected in Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.50 — 1.50 for Jagiellonia and 1.00 for Anderlecht. It rates over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 40%, so its call is no.