Lech Poznan vs Sunderland match summary and prediction — UEFA Europa League
Our model makes Lech Poznan the pick at 70% for Lech Poznan vs Sunderland. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Lech Poznan face Sunderland on 22 October 2026 at Stadion Poznan. Lech Poznan are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 70%. This league stage 3 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as Lech Poznan - Sunderland. Kick-off is 16:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Lech Poznan: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (34 scored and 25 conceded in 20 matches, 1.7 and 1.25 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 23.0 out of 100, and they sit 36th on a goal difference of -8.
Sunderland: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 43 conceded in 35 matches, 1.03 and 1.23 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.5 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Lech Poznan | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 36th | 9th |
| Goal difference | -8 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDWL | WLLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 12 | 6 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 20 | 35 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.7 / 1.25 | 1.03 / 1.23 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.95 | 1.34 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 23.0 | 45.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 70% | 5% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Lech Poznan 23.0 versus Sunderland 45.5, a gap of 22.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 27 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 34% and both teams to score at 30%.
- First goal: Leans Lech Poznan's way at 74%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Lech Poznan at 70%, a gap of 46 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Lech Poznan's way, especially at Stadion Poznan.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lech Poznan or Sunderland?
Lech Poznan, with an implied win probability of roughly 70%. The full split is 70% Lech Poznan, 25% the draw and 5% Sunderland.
When and where is Lech Poznan vs Sunderland being played?
22 October 2026 at Stadion Poznan, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Have Lech Poznan and Sunderland met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Lech Poznan and Sunderland?
Lech Poznan have taken 7 points from their last five (LWDWL), Sunderland 6 from theirs (WLLWL). Most recently Lech Poznan took a 0-4 defeat at home to Bayer Leverkusen and Sunderland a 2-1 win away at Torreense.
How many goals are expected in Lech Poznan vs Sunderland?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 2.00 for Lech Poznan and 0.20 for Sunderland. It rates over 2.5 goals at 34%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 30%, so its call is no.