Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Levski Sofia the pick at 53% for Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Levski Sofia host Jagiellonia on 5 November 2026 at National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia. Levski Sofia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This league stage 4 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as Levski Sofia - Jagiellonia. Kick-off is 17:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Levski Sofia: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (12 scored and 3 conceded in eight matches, 1.5 and 0.38 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.3 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of 0.
Jagiellonia: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 12 conceded in nine matches, 1.11 and 1.33 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.5 out of 100, and they sit 27th on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Levski Sofia | Jagiellonia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 27th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWWD | WWWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 3 | 10 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 9 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.5 / 0.38 | 1.11 / 1.33 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.5 | 1.67 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.3 | 34.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 53% | 20% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Levski Sofia 38.3 versus Jagiellonia 34.5, a gap of 3.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Levski Sofia's way at 58%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Levski Sofia at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Levski Sofia's way, especially at National Stadium Vasil Levski.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Levski Sofia or Jagiellonia?
Levski Sofia, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 53% Levski Sofia, 27% the draw and 20% Jagiellonia.
When and where is Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia being played?
5 November 2026 at National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Have Levski Sofia and Jagiellonia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Levski Sofia and Jagiellonia?
Levski Sofia have taken 11 points from their last five (WDWWD), Jagiellonia 9 from theirs (WWWLL). Most recently Levski Sofia took a 1-0 win away at Dunav Ruse and Jagiellonia a 3-1 win away at Wieczysta Kraków.
How many goals are expected in Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 1.00 for Levski Sofia and 0.80 for Jagiellonia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.