Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Real Sociedad travel to Lillestrom needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 22nd and still looking for rhythm. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
The fixture at a glance
Lillestrom face Real Sociedad on 22 October 2026. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 48%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This league stage 3 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as Lillestrom - Real Sociedad. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Lillestrom: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored nine and conceded nine, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.1 out of 100, and they sit 23rd on a goal difference of -1.
Real Sociedad: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded eight, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.1 out of 100, and they sit 22nd on a goal difference of -1. For a club of Real Sociedad's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Lillestrom | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 23rd | 22nd |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDWLL | DWLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 9 | 8 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 28.1 | 28.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 31% | 21% |
What stands out
- Big club, bad season: Real Sociedad are 22nd with a goal difference of -1 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 82% and both teams to score at 62%.
- First goal: Leans Lillestrom's way at 58%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Lillestrom's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lillestrom or Real Sociedad?
Neither side. Our model splits it 31% Lillestrom, 48% the draw and 21% Real Sociedad, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad being played?
22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Lillestrom and Real Sociedad met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Lillestrom and Real Sociedad?
Lillestrom have taken 5 points from their last five (DDWLL), Real Sociedad 7 from theirs (DWLWL). Most recently Lillestrom took a 1-1 draw away at Sparta Praha and Real Sociedad a 1-1 draw away at Union St. Gilloise.
How many goals are expected in Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 2.00 for Lillestrom and 1.80 for Real Sociedad. It rates over 2.5 goals at 82%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 62%, so its call is yes.