Lillestrom vs Plzen — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Plzen the pick at 48% for Lillestrom vs Plzen. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Plzen travel to Lillestrom on 5 November 2026. Plzen are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This league stage 4 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as Lillestrom - Plzen. Kick-off is 17:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Lillestrom: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 29 conceded in 21 matches, 1.48 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.6 out of 100, and they sit 31st on a goal difference of -7.
Plzen: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 15 conceded in eight matches, 2.0 and 1.88 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 23.8 out of 100, and they sit 33rd on a goal difference of -5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Lillestrom | Plzen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 31st | 33rd |
| Goal difference | -7 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLWD | WLLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 10 | 12 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 21 | 8 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.48 / 1.38 | 2.0 / 1.88 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.76 | 1.12 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 26.6 | 23.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 27% | 48% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Lillestrom 26.6 versus Plzen 23.8, a gap of 2.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Plzen's way at 55%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Plzen at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lillestrom or Plzen?
Plzen, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 27% Lillestrom, 25% the draw and 48% Plzen.
When and where is Lillestrom vs Plzen being played?
5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Have Lillestrom and Plzen met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Lillestrom and Plzen?
Lillestrom have taken 10 points from their last five (WWLWD), Plzen 6 from theirs (WLLWL). Most recently Lillestrom took a 2-1 win at home to Sogndal and Plzen a 6-1 win away at Vysočina Jihlava.
How many goals are expected in Lillestrom vs Plzen?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.80 for Lillestrom and 1.40 for Plzen. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.