OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen match summary and prediction — UEFA Europa League
There is barely anything between OFI and Bayer Leverkusen on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Bayer Leverkusen travel to OFI on 22 October 2026 at Pankritio Stadium, Heraklion. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 44%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This league stage 3 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as OFI - Bayer Leverkusen. Kick-off is 16:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
OFI: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 23 conceded in 15 matches, 1.53 and 1.53 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.2 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of +1.
Bayer Leverkusen: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (93 scored and 74 conceded in 51 matches, 1.82 and 1.45 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.5 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +6.
Side by side
| Statistic | OFI | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +1 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDWW | WWWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 7 | 14 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 15 | 51 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.53 / 1.53 | 1.82 / 1.45 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.53 | 1.67 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.2 | 46.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 15% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: OFI 35.2 versus Bayer Leverkusen 46.5, a gap of 11.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 16 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.70, over 2.5 goals at 25% and both teams to score at 41%.
- First goal: Leans OFI's way at 60%.
The call
The model does not commit. A draw is the nominal pick at 44%, but the three results sit close to even. Bayer Leverkusen's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: OFI or Bayer Leverkusen?
Neither side. Our model splits it 42% OFI, 44% the draw and 15% Bayer Leverkusen, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
22 October 2026 at Pankritio Stadium, Heraklion, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Have OFI and Bayer Leverkusen met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of OFI and Bayer Leverkusen?
OFI have taken 7 points from their last five (LLDWW), Bayer Leverkusen 13 from theirs (WWWWD). Most recently OFI took a 1-2 defeat away at Rennes and Bayer Leverkusen a 4-0 win away at Lech Poznan.
How many goals are expected in OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.70 — 1.50 for OFI and 1.20 for Bayer Leverkusen. It rates over 2.5 goals at 25%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 41%, so its call is no.