Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 49% for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Sparta Praha travel to Olympiakos Piraeus on 22 October 2026 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 49%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This league stage 3 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as Olympiakos Piraeus - Sparta Praha. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Olympiakos Piraeus: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (34 scored and 37 conceded in 32 matches, 1.06 and 1.16 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.5 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +2.
Sparta Praha: they come in on the back of a draw, following four wins before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 17 conceded in 17 matches, 1.94 and 1.0 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.1 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Olympiakos Piraeus | Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 11th |
| Goal difference | +2 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWL | DWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 2 | 15 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 32 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.06 / 1.16 | 1.94 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.38 | 2.06 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.5 | 39.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 27% | 24% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus 45.5 versus Sparta Praha 39.1, a gap of 6.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 20% and both teams to score at 36%.
- First goal: Leans Olympiakos Piraeus' way at 57%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Olympiakos Piraeus or Sparta Praha?
Neither side. Our model splits it 27% Olympiakos Piraeus, 49% the draw and 24% Sparta Praha, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha being played?
22 October 2026 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus and Sparta Praha met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Olympiakos Piraeus and Sparta Praha?
Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWWL), Sparta Praha 13 from theirs (DWWWW). Most recently Olympiakos Piraeus took a 1-0 win away at Marseille and Sparta Praha a 1-1 draw at home to Lillestrom.
How many goals are expected in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 0.80 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.60 for Sparta Praha. It rates over 2.5 goals at 20%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 36%, so its call is no.