Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 47% for Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Union St. Gilloise face Hapoel Beer Sheva on 22 October 2026 at Den Dreef, Heverlee. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 47%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This league stage 3 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as Union St. Gilloise - Hapoel Beer Sheva. Kick-off is 16:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Union St. Gilloise: they come in on two successive draws, following three wins before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (45 scored and 48 conceded in 33 matches, 1.36 and 1.45 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.1 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of +3.
Hapoel Beer Sheva: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 17 conceded in 15 matches, 2.0 and 1.13 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.1 out of 100, and they sit 25th on a goal difference of -1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Union St. Gilloise | Hapoel Beer Sheva |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 25th |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDWWW | LWWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 2 | 6 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 4 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 33 | 15 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.36 / 1.45 | 2.0 / 1.13 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.7 | 2.07 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.1 | 28.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 14% | 39% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Union St. Gilloise 39.1 versus Hapoel Beer Sheva 28.1, a gap of 11.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 13 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.40, over 2.5 goals at 80% and both teams to score at 36%.
- First goal: Leans Hapoel Beer Sheva's way at 59%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards a draw at 47%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Union St. Gilloise or Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Neither side. Our model splits it 14% Union St. Gilloise, 47% the draw and 39% Hapoel Beer Sheva, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva being played?
22 October 2026 at Den Dreef, Heverlee, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Have Union St. Gilloise and Hapoel Beer Sheva met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Union St. Gilloise and Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Union St. Gilloise have taken 11 points from their last five (DDWWW), Hapoel Beer Sheva 10 from theirs (LWWDW). Most recently Union St. Gilloise took a 1-1 draw at home to Real Sociedad and Hapoel Beer Sheva a 1-2 defeat away at AZ Alkmaar.
How many goals are expected in Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.40 — 1.80 for Union St. Gilloise and 2.60 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. It rates over 2.5 goals at 80%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 36%, so its call is no.