Sturm Graz vs Celje: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Sturm Graz the pick at 63% for Sturm Graz vs Celje. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Sturm Graz face Celje on 5 November 2026 at Merkur-Arena, Graz. Sturm Graz are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 63%. This league stage 4 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as Sturm Graz - Celje. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Sturm Graz: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 29 conceded in 22 matches, 1.14 and 1.32 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.8 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -2.
Celje: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 11 conceded in six matches, 1.83 and 1.83 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.1 out of 100, and they sit 29th on a goal difference of -5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Sturm Graz | Celje |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 29th |
| Goal difference | -2 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWWL | DWDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 9 | 5 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 22 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.14 / 1.32 | 1.83 / 1.83 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.41 | 1.83 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 37.8 | 27.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 63% | 18% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Sturm Graz 37.8 versus Celje 27.1, a gap of 10.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.00, over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 61%.
- First goal: Leans Sturm Graz's way at 67%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Sturm Graz at 63%, a gap of 44 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Sturm Graz's way, especially at Merkur-Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sturm Graz or Celje?
Sturm Graz, with an implied win probability of roughly 63%. The full split is 63% Sturm Graz, 19% the draw and 18% Celje.
When and where is Sturm Graz vs Celje being played?
5 November 2026 at Merkur-Arena, Graz, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Have Sturm Graz and Celje met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Sturm Graz and Celje?
Sturm Graz have taken 7 points from their last five (LDWWL), Celje 6 from theirs (DWDDL). Most recently Sturm Graz took a 2-3 defeat away at Austria Lustenau and Celje a 1-1 draw away at Olimpija Ljubljana.
How many goals are expected in Sturm Graz vs Celje?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.00 — 2.20 for Sturm Graz and 1.80 for Celje. It rates over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 61%, so its call is yes.