Sturm Graz vs Marseille: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Marseille travel to Sturm Graz needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 32nd and still looking for rhythm. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
The fixture at a glance
Sturm Graz face Marseille on 22 October 2026 at Merkur-Arena, Graz. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 48%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This league stage 3 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as Sturm Graz - Marseille. Kick-off is 16:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Sturm Graz: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 29 conceded in 22 matches, 1.14 and 1.32 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.6 out of 100, and they sit 26th on a goal difference of -3.
Marseille: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (97 scored and 63 conceded in 49 matches, 1.98 and 1.29 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.0 out of 100, and they sit 32nd on a goal difference of -4. For a club of Marseille's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Side by side
| Statistic | Sturm Graz | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 26th | 32nd |
| Goal difference | -3 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWLD | LWLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 7 | 4 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 22 | 49 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.14 / 1.32 | 1.98 / 1.29 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.41 | 1.65 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 27.6 | 24.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 13% | 39% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Sturm Graz 27.6 versus Marseille 24.0, a gap of 3.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Big club, bad season: Marseille are 32nd with a goal difference of -4 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams to score at 34%.
- First goal: Leans Marseille's way at 57%.
The call
The model edges towards a draw at 48%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Sturm Graz's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sturm Graz or Marseille?
Neither side. Our model splits it 13% Sturm Graz, 48% the draw and 39% Marseille, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Sturm Graz vs Marseille being played?
22 October 2026 at Merkur-Arena, Graz, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Have Sturm Graz and Marseille met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Sturm Graz and Marseille?
Sturm Graz have taken 7 points from their last five (LWWLD), Marseille 3 from theirs (LWLLL). Most recently Sturm Graz took a 0-3 defeat away at Bournemouth and Marseille a 0-1 defeat at home to Olympiakos Piraeus.
How many goals are expected in Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 0.60 for Sturm Graz and 1.80 for Marseille. It rates over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 34%, so its call is no.