Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Dinamo Zagreb the pick at 44% for Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Sunderland host Dinamo Zagreb on 5 November 2026 at Stadium of Light, Sunderland. Dinamo Zagreb are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This league stage 4 fixture in UEFA Europa League is listed as Sunderland - Dinamo Zagreb. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Sunderland: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 11 conceded in eight matches, 0.88 and 1.38 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.8 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +2.
Dinamo Zagreb: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 15 conceded in ten matches, 2.0 and 1.5 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.1 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Sunderland | Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 18th |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDDL | LWLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 8 | 10 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 10 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.88 / 1.38 | 2.0 / 1.5 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.12 | 1.9 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 48.8 | 38.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 31% | 44% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Sunderland 48.8 versus Dinamo Zagreb 38.1, a gap of 10.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 62%.
- First goal: Leans Dinamo Zagreb's way at 50%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Dinamo Zagreb at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sunderland or Dinamo Zagreb?
Dinamo Zagreb, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 31% Sunderland, 25% the draw and 44% Dinamo Zagreb.
When and where is Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb being played?
5 November 2026 at Stadium of Light, Sunderland, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Have Sunderland and Dinamo Zagreb met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Sunderland and Dinamo Zagreb?
Sunderland have taken 5 points from their last five (LWDDL), Dinamo Zagreb 9 from theirs (LWLWW). Most recently Sunderland took a 1-3 defeat away at Coventry and Dinamo Zagreb a 0-1 defeat away at Rudes.
How many goals are expected in Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.00 for Sunderland and 2.20 for Dinamo Zagreb. It rates over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 62%, so its call is yes.