Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty: match summary, form and prediction
Atalanta host Kairat Almaty with a season still short of where it should be — 15th in UEFA Europa Conference League and winless in four. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
The fixture at a glance
Atalanta face Kairat Almaty on 5 November 2026 at New Balance Arena, Bergamo. Atalanta are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 64%. This league stage 3 fixture in UEFA Europa Conference League is listed as Atalanta - Kairat Almaty. Kick-off is 17:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Atalanta: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (63 scored and 57 conceded in 46 matches, 1.37 and 1.24 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.0 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of 0. For a club of Atalanta's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Kairat Almaty: they come in on two successive draws, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 37 conceded in 16 matches, 0.69 and 2.31 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.3 out of 100, and they sit 31st on a goal difference of -4.
Side by side
| Statistic | Atalanta | Kairat Almaty |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 31st |
| Goal difference | 0 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDLLW | DDLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 12 | 10 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 46 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.37 / 1.24 | 0.69 / 2.31 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.61 | 0.25 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.0 | 27.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 64% | 15% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Atalanta 35.0 versus Kairat Almaty 27.3, a gap of 7.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Atalanta are 15th with a goal difference of 0 and winless in four — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Table gap: 16 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 62%.
- First goal: Leans Atalanta's way at 70%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Atalanta at 64%, a gap of 43 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Atalanta's way, especially at New Balance Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Atalanta or Kairat Almaty?
Atalanta, with an implied win probability of roughly 64%. The full split is 64% Atalanta, 21% the draw and 15% Kairat Almaty.
When and where is Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty being played?
5 November 2026 at New Balance Arena, Bergamo, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Have Atalanta and Kairat Almaty met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Atalanta and Kairat Almaty?
Atalanta have taken 5 points from their last five (DDLLW), Kairat Almaty 6 from theirs (DDLWD). Most recently Atalanta took a 2-2 draw away at Fiorentina and Kairat Almaty a 1-1 draw at home to Altay.
How many goals are expected in Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 1.80 for Atalanta and 1.80 for Kairat Almaty. It rates over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 62%, so its call is yes.