FK Jablonec vs Brighton: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 46% for FK Jablonec vs Brighton. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
FK Jablonec host Brighton on 22 October 2026 at Stadion Strelnice, Jablonec nad Nisou. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 46%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This league stage 2 fixture in UEFA Europa Conference League is listed as FK Jablonec - Brighton. Kick-off is 16:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
FK Jablonec: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 27 conceded in 15 matches, 1.07 and 1.8 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.8 out of 100, and they sit 23rd on a goal difference of -1.
Brighton: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 45 conceded in 34 matches, 1.35 and 1.32 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.0 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | FK Jablonec | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 23rd | 1st |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWDL | WWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 15 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 6 | 17 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 4 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 15 | 34 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.07 / 1.8 | 1.35 / 1.32 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.13 | 1.32 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 24.8 | 36.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 39% | 15% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: FK Jablonec 24.8 versus Brighton 36.0, a gap of 11.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 22 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 65%.
- First goal: Leans FK Jablonec's way at 63%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards a draw at 46%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FK Jablonec or Brighton?
Neither side. Our model splits it 39% FK Jablonec, 46% the draw and 15% Brighton, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is FK Jablonec vs Brighton being played?
22 October 2026 at Stadion Strelnice, Jablonec nad Nisou, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Have FK Jablonec and Brighton met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of FK Jablonec and Brighton?
FK Jablonec have taken 7 points from their last five (LWWDL), Brighton 15 from theirs (WWWWW). Most recently FK Jablonec took a 2-3 defeat away at SC Freiburg and Brighton a 4-0 win at home to Kauno Žalgiris.
How many goals are expected in FK Jablonec vs Brighton?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 0.80 for FK Jablonec and 1.60 for Brighton. It rates over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 65%, so its call is yes.