Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes HNK Hajduk Split the pick at 67% for Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Lincoln Red Imps FC face HNK Hajduk Split on 5 November 2026 at Europa Point Stadium. HNK Hajduk Split are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 67%. This league stage 3 fixture in UEFA Europa Conference League is listed as Lincoln Red Imps FC - HNK Hajduk Split. Kick-off is 17:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Lincoln Red Imps FC: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored nine and conceded seven, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.0 out of 100, and they sit 33rd on a goal difference of -4.
HNK Hajduk Split: they come in on the back of a win, following three wins and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored eleven and conceded three, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.5 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Lincoln Red Imps FC | HNK Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 33rd | 8th |
| Goal difference | -4 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWLW | WDWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 7 | 11 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 24.0 | 45.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 10% | 67% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Lincoln Red Imps FC 24.0 versus HNK Hajduk Split 45.5, a gap of 21.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 25 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans HNK Hajduk Split's way at 67%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards HNK Hajduk Split at 67%, a gap of 44 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lincoln Red Imps FC or HNK Hajduk Split?
HNK Hajduk Split, with an implied win probability of roughly 67%. The full split is 10% Lincoln Red Imps FC, 23% the draw and 67% HNK Hajduk Split.
When and where is Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split being played?
5 November 2026 at Europa Point Stadium, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Have Lincoln Red Imps FC and HNK Hajduk Split met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Lincoln Red Imps FC and HNK Hajduk Split?
Lincoln Red Imps FC have taken 9 points from their last five (WLWLW), HNK Hajduk Split 13 from theirs (WDWWW). Most recently Lincoln Red Imps FC took a 3-0 win at home to Lions Gibraltar and HNK Hajduk Split a 5-0 win at home to HNK Gorica.
How many goals are expected in Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 0.80 for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 2.00 for HNK Hajduk Split. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.