FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden match summary and prediction — UEFA Europa Conference League
Our model makes FC Midtjylland the pick at 70% for FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
St. Truiden travel to FC Midtjylland on 22 October 2026 at MCH Arena, Herning. FC Midtjylland are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 70%. This league stage 2 fixture in UEFA Europa Conference League is listed as FC Midtjylland - St. Truiden. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
FC Midtjylland: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (43 scored and 22 conceded in 23 matches, 1.87 and 0.96 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.3 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of 0.
St. Truiden: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 22 conceded in 20 matches, 1.5 and 1.1 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.5 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | FC Midtjylland | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 6th |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWDWW | WLLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 15 / 4 | 9 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 23 | 20 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.87 / 0.96 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Points per game (2025) | 2.09 | 1.6 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 28.3 | 35.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 70% | 4% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Midtjylland 28.3 versus St. Truiden 35.5, a gap of 7.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 15% and both teams to score at 25%.
- First goal: Leans FC Midtjylland's way at 81%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards FC Midtjylland at 70%, a gap of 44 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FC Midtjylland's way, especially at MCH Arena.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Midtjylland or St. Truiden?
FC Midtjylland, with an implied win probability of roughly 70%. The full split is 70% FC Midtjylland, 26% the draw and 4% St. Truiden.
When and where is FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden being played?
22 October 2026 at MCH Arena, Herning, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden?
FC Midtjylland have taken 11 points from their last five (DWDWW), St. Truiden 6 from theirs (WLLLW). Most recently FC Midtjylland took a 1-1 draw away at Egnatia Rrogozhinë and St. Truiden a 2-0 win at home to FC Iberia 1999.
How many goals are expected in FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.20 for FC Midtjylland and 1.20 for St. Truiden. It rates over 2.5 goals at 15%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 25%, so its call is no.