Monaco vs SC Freiburg match summary and prediction — UEFA Europa Conference League
Our model makes a draw the pick at 46% for Monaco vs SC Freiburg. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
SC Freiburg travel to Monaco on 22 October 2026 at Stade Louis II, Monaco. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 46%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This league stage 2 fixture in UEFA Europa Conference League is listed as Monaco - SC Freiburg. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Monaco: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (83 scored and 83 conceded in 51 matches, 1.63 and 1.63 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.2 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +1.
SC Freiburg: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (66 scored and 65 conceded in 45 matches, 1.47 and 1.44 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.2 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Monaco | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 7th |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWWD | WWWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 5 | 16 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 51 | 45 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.63 / 1.63 | 1.47 / 1.44 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.51 | 1.47 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.2 | 35.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 41% | 13% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 90% and both teams to score at 38%.
- First goal: Leans Monaco's way at 68%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards a draw at 46%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Monaco or SC Freiburg?
Neither side. Our model splits it 41% Monaco, 46% the draw and 13% SC Freiburg, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Monaco vs SC Freiburg being played?
22 October 2026 at Stade Louis II, Monaco, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Monaco and SC Freiburg met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Monaco and SC Freiburg?
Monaco have taken 11 points from their last five (WDWWD), SC Freiburg 13 from theirs (WWWDW). Most recently Monaco took a 2-1 win away at CSKA Sofia and SC Freiburg a 3-2 win at home to FK Jablonec.
How many goals are expected in Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 1.60 for Monaco and 2.20 for SC Freiburg. It rates over 2.5 goals at 90%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 38%, so its call is no.