Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Panathinaikos the pick at 59% for Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
CSKA Sofia travel to Panathinaikos on 5 November 2026 at Olympic Stadium of Athens, Athens. Panathinaikos are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 59%. This league stage 3 fixture in UEFA Europa Conference League is listed as Panathinaikos - CSKA Sofia. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Panathinaikos: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 8 conceded in nine matches, 2.78 and 0.89 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.2 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +5.
CSKA Sofia: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (14 scored and 5 conceded in eight matches, 1.75 and 0.62 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.1 out of 100, and they sit 23rd on a goal difference of -1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Panathinaikos | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 23rd |
| Goal difference | +5 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWW | DWDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 15 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 15 / 4 | 7 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 9 | 8 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.78 / 0.89 | 1.75 / 0.62 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.56 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.2 | 28.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 59% | 21% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Panathinaikos 46.2 versus CSKA Sofia 28.1, a gap of 18.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 22 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 5.20, over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans Panathinaikos' way at 63%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Panathinaikos at 59%, a gap of 39 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Panathinaikos's way, especially at Olympic Stadium of Athens.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Panathinaikos or CSKA Sofia?
Panathinaikos, with an implied win probability of roughly 59%. The full split is 59% Panathinaikos, 20% the draw and 21% CSKA Sofia.
When and where is Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia being played?
5 November 2026 at Olympic Stadium of Athens, Athens, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Have Panathinaikos and CSKA Sofia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Panathinaikos and CSKA Sofia?
Panathinaikos have taken 15 points from their last five (WWWWW), CSKA Sofia 8 from theirs (DWDWL). Most recently Panathinaikos took a 2-1 win at home to Aris Thessalonikis and CSKA Sofia a 0-0 draw at home to Slavia Sofia.
How many goals are expected in Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia?
The model's combined scoring line is 5.20 — 3.40 for Panathinaikos and 1.80 for CSKA Sofia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.