Riga vs FK Jablonec — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Riga the pick at 60% for Riga vs FK Jablonec. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
FK Jablonec travel to Riga on 5 November 2026 at Skonto stadions, Riga. Riga are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 60%. This league stage 3 fixture in UEFA Europa Conference League is listed as Riga - FK Jablonec. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Riga: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (13 scored and 7 conceded in six matches, 2.17 and 1.17 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.7 out of 100, and they sit 21st on a goal difference of 0.
FK Jablonec: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 16 conceded in 13 matches, 1.38 and 1.23 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.1 out of 100, and they sit 24th on a goal difference of -1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Riga | FK Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 21st | 24th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWDW | LWDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 5 | 6 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 13 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.17 / 1.17 | 1.38 / 1.23 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.33 | 1.77 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 31.7 | 28.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 60% | 19% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Riga 31.7 versus FK Jablonec 28.1, a gap of 3.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Riga's way at 63%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Riga at 60%, a gap of 39 percentage points to the next outcome. Riga's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Riga's way, especially at Skonto stadions.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Riga or FK Jablonec?
Riga, with an implied win probability of roughly 60%. The full split is 60% Riga, 21% the draw and 19% FK Jablonec.
When and where is Riga vs FK Jablonec being played?
5 November 2026 at Skonto stadions, Riga, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Have Riga and FK Jablonec met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Riga and FK Jablonec?
Riga have taken 11 points from their last five (WDWDW), FK Jablonec 4 from theirs (LWDLL). Most recently Riga took a 5-2 win away at Grobiņa and FK Jablonec a 0-5 defeat at home to Slavia Praha.
How many goals are expected in Riga vs FK Jablonec?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 2.00 for Riga and 0.80 for FK Jablonec. It rates over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.