FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split match summary and prediction — UEFA Europa Conference League
There is barely anything between FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
FC Thun face HNK Hajduk Split on 22 October 2026 at Stockhorn Arena, Thun. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 45%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This league stage 2 fixture in UEFA Europa Conference League is listed as FC Thun - HNK Hajduk Split. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
FC Thun: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 18 conceded in eight matches, 1.25 and 2.25 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.8 out of 100, and they sit 30th on a goal difference of -1.
HNK Hajduk Split: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 12 conceded in eight matches, 2.25 and 1.5 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.2 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | FC Thun | HNK Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 30th | 10th |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWWL | WWLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 10 | 7 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 8 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.25 / 2.25 | 2.25 / 1.5 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.62 | 1.62 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 24.8 | 35.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 13% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Thun 24.8 versus HNK Hajduk Split 35.2, a gap of 10.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 20 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.60, over 2.5 goals at 95% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans FC Thun's way at 66%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. A draw is the nominal pick at 45%, but the three results sit close to even. HNK Hajduk Split's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Thun or HNK Hajduk Split?
Neither side. Our model splits it 42% FC Thun, 45% the draw and 13% HNK Hajduk Split, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split being played?
22 October 2026 at Stockhorn Arena, Thun, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split?
FC Thun have taken 6 points from their last five (LLWWL), HNK Hajduk Split 12 from theirs (WWLWW). Most recently FC Thun took a 0-1 defeat away at Twente and HNK Hajduk Split a 2-1 win at home to Ajax.
How many goals are expected in FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.60 — 2.40 for FC Thun and 2.20 for HNK Hajduk Split. It rates over 2.5 goals at 95%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.