Trabzonspor vs Heart Of Midlothian match summary and prediction — UEFA Europa Conference League
Our model makes a draw the pick at 53% for Trabzonspor vs Heart Of Midlothian. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Trabzonspor host Heart Of Midlothian on 22 October 2026 at Papara Park, Trabzon. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 53%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This league stage 2 fixture in UEFA Europa Conference League is listed as Trabzonspor - Heart Of Midlothian. Kick-off is 16:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Trabzonspor: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 25 conceded in 17 matches, 1.65 and 1.47 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.5 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +2.
Heart Of Midlothian: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 14 conceded in 18 matches, 1.56 and 0.78 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.3 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Trabzonspor | Heart Of Midlothian |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 19th |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLWL | DWDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 4 | 11 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.65 / 1.47 | 1.56 / 0.78 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.65 | 2.17 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.5 | 28.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 26% | 22% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Trabzonspor 35.5 versus Heart Of Midlothian 28.3, a gap of 7.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 16 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 84% and both teams to score at 77%.
- First goal: Leans Trabzonspor's way at 53%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Trabzonspor or Heart Of Midlothian?
Neither side. Our model splits it 26% Trabzonspor, 53% the draw and 22% Heart Of Midlothian, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Trabzonspor vs Heart Of Midlothian being played?
22 October 2026 at Papara Park, Trabzon, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Have Trabzonspor and Heart Of Midlothian met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Trabzonspor and Heart Of Midlothian?
Trabzonspor have taken 9 points from their last five (WWLWL), Heart Of Midlothian 8 from theirs (DWDLW). Most recently Trabzonspor took a 4-2 win away at KuPS and Heart Of Midlothian a 1-1 draw at home to FC Nordsjaelland.
How many goals are expected in Trabzonspor vs Heart Of Midlothian?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 1.80 for Trabzonspor and 1.60 for Heart Of Midlothian. It rates over 2.5 goals at 84%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 77%, so its call is yes.