Twente vs Pafos: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Twente the pick at 67% for Twente vs Pafos. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Twente host Pafos on 5 November 2026 at De Grolsch Veste, Enschede. Twente are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 67%. This league stage 3 fixture in UEFA Europa Conference League is listed as Twente - Pafos. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Twente: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 24 conceded in 17 matches, 2.12 and 1.41 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.0 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +4.
Pafos: they come in on four successive draws, following one defeat before that. That is no wins, four draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 22 conceded in 16 matches, 1.0 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.8 out of 100, and they sit 27th on a goal difference of -2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Twente | Pafos |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 27th |
| Goal difference | +4 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLWD | DDDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 4 | 4 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.12 / 1.41 | 1.0 / 1.38 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.76 | 1.31 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.0 | 27.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 67% | 12% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Twente 46.0 versus Pafos 27.8, a gap of 18.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 22 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Twente's way at 67%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Twente at 67%, a gap of 45 percentage points to the next outcome. Twente's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Twente's way, especially at De Grolsch Veste.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Twente or Pafos?
Twente, with an implied win probability of roughly 67%. The full split is 67% Twente, 21% the draw and 12% Pafos.
When and where is Twente vs Pafos being played?
5 November 2026 at De Grolsch Veste, Enschede, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Have Twente and Pafos met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Twente and Pafos?
Twente have taken 10 points from their last five (WWLWD), Pafos 4 from theirs (DDDDL). Most recently Twente took a 2-0 win away at AZ Alkmaar and Pafos a 2-2 draw away at Apollon Limassol.
How many goals are expected in Twente vs Pafos?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 2.00 for Twente and 1.40 for Pafos. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.