Gnistan vs AC Oulu — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Gnistan the pick at 40% for Gnistan vs AC Oulu. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Gnistan face AC Oulu on 24 October 2026 at Mustapekka Areena, Helsinki. Gnistan are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This championship group 29 fixture in Veikkausliiga is listed as Gnistan - AC Oulu. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Gnistan: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two draws before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored three and conceded seven, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 43.4 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +7.
AC Oulu: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded eight, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.0 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of 0.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Gnistan | AC Oulu |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 5th |
| Goal difference | +7 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDDW | WLWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 7 | 7 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 43.4 | 45.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 40% | 32% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Gnistan 43.4 versus AC Oulu 45.0, a gap of 1.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Gnistan's way at 54%.
The call
The model edges towards Gnistan at 40%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. AC Oulu's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Gnistan's way, especially at Mustapekka Areena.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Gnistan or AC Oulu?
Gnistan, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 40% Gnistan, 27% the draw and 32% AC Oulu.
When and where is Gnistan vs AC Oulu being played?
24 October 2026 at Mustapekka Areena, Helsinki, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Gnistan and AC Oulu?
AC Oulu 1-2 Gnistan on 12 September 2026.
What is the recent form of Gnistan and AC Oulu?
Gnistan have taken 5 points from their last five (LLDDW), AC Oulu 6 from theirs (WLWLL). Most recently Gnistan took a 0-4 defeat away at HJK Helsinki and AC Oulu a 2-1 win away at Inter Turku.
How many goals are expected in Gnistan vs AC Oulu?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.50 for Gnistan and 0.50 for AC Oulu. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.