KuPS vs Gnistan — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes KuPS the pick at 44% for KuPS vs Gnistan. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Gnistan travel to KuPS on 29 October 2026 at Vare Areena, Kuopio. KuPS are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This championship group 30 fixture in Veikkausliiga is listed as KuPS - Gnistan. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
KuPS: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded eight, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.1 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +15.
Gnistan: they come in on three defeats in a row, following two draws before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored four and conceded ten, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.4 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +7.
Side by side
| Statistic | KuPS | Gnistan |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 4th |
| Goal difference | +15 | +7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLLL | LLLDD |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 8 | 4 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 52.1 | 33.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 28% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: KuPS 52.1 versus Gnistan 33.4, a gap of 18.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans KuPS's way at 58%.
The call
The model edges towards KuPS at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts KuPS's way, especially at Vare Areena.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: KuPS or Gnistan?
KuPS, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% KuPS, 28% the draw and 28% Gnistan.
When and where is KuPS vs Gnistan being played?
29 October 2026 at Vare Areena, Kuopio, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between KuPS and Gnistan?
Gnistan 1-1 KuPS on 08 September 2026.
What is the recent form of KuPS and Gnistan?
KuPS have taken 3 points from their last five (LWLLL), Gnistan 2 from theirs (LLLDD). Most recently KuPS took a 0-2 defeat away at Borac Banja Luka and Gnistan a 3-4 defeat at home to AC Oulu.
How many goals are expected in KuPS vs Gnistan?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 0.80 for KuPS and 2.00 for Gnistan. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.