Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Palmeiras the pick at 59% for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Palmeiras host Vasco DA Gama on 1 November 2026. Palmeiras are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 59%. This semi finals fixture in Copa Do Brasil is listed as Palmeiras - Vasco DA Gama. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Palmeiras: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (75 scored and 34 conceded in 49 matches, 1.53 and 0.69 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Vasco DA Gama: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (55 scored and 48 conceded in 45 matches, 1.22 and 1.07 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Palmeiras | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLWW | LWLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 2 | 6 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 49 | 45 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.53 / 0.69 | 1.22 / 1.07 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.0 | 1.47 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 59% | 15% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 3 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Palmeiras three wins, Vasco DA Gama one win, none draws — an edge to Palmeiras.
- Most recent meeting: Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Palmeiras on 12 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.25 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the four — broadly an average game for goals.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 48%.
- First goal: Leans Palmeiras' way at 66%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Palmeiras at 59%, a gap of 33 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Palmeiras or Vasco DA Gama?
Palmeiras, with an implied win probability of roughly 59%. The full split is 59% Palmeiras, 26% the draw and 15% Vasco DA Gama.
When and where is Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
1 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Palmeiras on 12 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama?
Palmeiras have taken 10 points from their last five (DWLWW), Vasco DA Gama 6 from theirs (LWLLW). Most recently Palmeiras took a 0-0 draw away at Santos and Vasco DA Gama a 1-4 defeat at home to Flamengo.
How many goals are expected in Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.00 for Palmeiras and 1.60 for Vasco DA Gama. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 48%, so its call is no.