Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Palmeiras the pick at 44% for Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Vasco DA Gama face Palmeiras on 8 November 2026. Palmeiras are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This semi finals fixture in Copa Do Brasil is listed as Vasco DA Gama - Palmeiras. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Vasco DA Gama: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (55 scored and 49 conceded in 46 matches, 1.2 and 1.07 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Palmeiras: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (76 scored and 34 conceded in 50 matches, 1.52 and 0.68 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Vasco DA Gama | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWLL | WDWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 11 | 5 / 1 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 4 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 46 | 50 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.2 / 1.07 | 1.52 / 0.68 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.43 | 2.02 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 24% | 44% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 5) | 1 | 4 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 5): Vasco DA Gama one win, Palmeiras four wins, none draws — an edge to Palmeiras.
- Most recent meeting: Palmeiras 1-0 Vasco DA Gama on 01 November 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the five — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Palmeiras' way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Palmeiras at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Palmeiras' stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Vasco DA Gama or Palmeiras?
Palmeiras, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 24% Vasco DA Gama, 33% the draw and 44% Palmeiras.
When and where is Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras being played?
8 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras 1-0 Vasco DA Gama on 01 November 2026.
What is the recent form of Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras?
Vasco DA Gama have taken 3 points from their last five (LLWLL), Palmeiras 10 from theirs (WDWLW). Most recently Vasco DA Gama took a 0-1 defeat away at Palmeiras and Palmeiras a 1-0 win at home to Vasco DA Gama.
How many goals are expected in Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.20 for Vasco DA Gama and 1.00 for Palmeiras. It rates over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.