Gremio vs Atletico-MG: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Gremio the pick at 53% for Gremio vs Atletico-MG. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Gremio face Atletico-MG on 1 November 2026. Gremio are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This semi finals fixture in Copa Do Brasil is listed as Gremio - Atletico-MG. Kick-off is 21:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Gremio: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (48 scored and 40 conceded in 38 matches, 1.26 and 1.05 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Atletico-MG: they come in on three defeats in a row, following two wins before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 45 conceded in 38 matches, 1.21 and 1.18 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Gremio | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLDD | LLLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 6 | 6 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 38 | 38 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.26 / 1.05 | 1.21 / 1.18 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.45 | 1.42 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 53% | 20% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 2 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Gremio two wins, Atletico-MG one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Gremio 2-1 Atletico-MG on 26 February 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Gremio's way at 60%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Gremio at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Gremio's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Gremio or Atletico-MG?
Gremio, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 53% Gremio, 27% the draw and 20% Atletico-MG.
When and where is Gremio vs Atletico-MG being played?
1 November 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Gremio and Atletico-MG?
Gremio 2-1 Atletico-MG on 26 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Gremio and Atletico-MG?
Gremio have taken 8 points from their last five (WWLDD), Atletico-MG 6 from theirs (LLLWW). Most recently Gremio took a 2-0 win at home to Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG a 0-1 defeat at home to Cruzeiro.
How many goals are expected in Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.20 for Gremio and 1.00 for Atletico-MG. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.