Atletico-MG vs Gremio match summary and prediction — Copa Do Brasil
Our model makes Atletico-MG the pick at 43% for Atletico-MG vs Gremio. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Atletico-MG face Gremio on 7 November 2026 at MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte. Atletico-MG are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This semi finals fixture in Copa Do Brasil is listed as Atletico-MG - Gremio. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Atletico-MG: they come in on four defeats in a row, following one win before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 47 conceded in 39 matches, 1.18 and 1.21 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Gremio: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (50 scored and 40 conceded in 39 matches, 1.28 and 1.03 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Atletico-MG | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLW | WWWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 8 | 8 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 39 | 39 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.18 / 1.21 | 1.28 / 1.03 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.38 | 1.49 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 29% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 1 | 3 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Atletico-MG one win, Gremio three wins, none draws — an edge to Gremio.
- Most recent meeting: Gremio 2-0 Atletico-MG on 01 November 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the four — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Atletico-MG's way at 55%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Atletico-MG at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Gremio's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Atletico-MG's way, especially at MRV Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Atletico-MG or Gremio?
Atletico-MG, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Atletico-MG, 28% the draw and 29% Gremio.
When and where is Atletico-MG vs Gremio being played?
7 November 2026 at MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Atletico-MG and Gremio?
Gremio 2-0 Atletico-MG on 01 November 2026.
What is the recent form of Atletico-MG and Gremio?
Atletico-MG have taken 3 points from their last five (LLLLW), Gremio 10 from theirs (WWWLD). Most recently Atletico-MG took a 0-2 defeat away at Gremio and Gremio a 2-0 win at home to Atletico-MG.
How many goals are expected in Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.00 for Atletico-MG and 1.60 for Gremio. It rates over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.