Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Borussia Dortmund the pick at 77% for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Werder Bremen travel to Borussia Dortmund on 27 October 2026 at Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund. Borussia Dortmund are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 77%. This round of 32 fixture in DFB Pokal is listed as Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Borussia Dortmund: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (102 scored and 63 conceded in 46 matches, 2.22 and 1.37 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Werder Bremen: they come in on two successive draws, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 54 conceded in 30 matches, 1.07 and 1.8 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDLDW | DDLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 4 | 8 / 14 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 46 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.22 / 1.37 | 1.07 / 1.8 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.87 | 0.97 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 77% | 7% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 5 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): Borussia Dortmund five wins, Werder Bremen one win, two draws — an edge to Borussia Dortmund.
- Most recent meeting: Werder Bremen 0-2 Borussia Dortmund on 16 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the eight — broadly an average game for goals.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Borussia Dortmund's way at 77%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Borussia Dortmund at 77%, a gap of 61 percentage points to the next outcome. Borussia Dortmund's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Borussia Dortmund's way, especially at Signal Iduna Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Borussia Dortmund or Werder Bremen?
Borussia Dortmund, with an implied win probability of roughly 77%. The full split is 77% Borussia Dortmund, 16% the draw and 7% Werder Bremen.
When and where is Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen being played?
27 October 2026 at Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen?
Werder Bremen 0-2 Borussia Dortmund on 16 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen?
Borussia Dortmund have taken 8 points from their last five (WDLDW), Werder Bremen 6 from theirs (DDLWD). Most recently Borussia Dortmund took a 2-1 win away at Sabah FA and Werder Bremen a 2-2 draw at home to SC Paderborn 07.
How many goals are expected in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 3.20 for Borussia Dortmund and 1.00 for Werder Bremen. It rates over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.