1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin match summary and prediction — DFB Pokal
Our model makes Union Berlin the pick at 42% for 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
1. FC Köln face Union Berlin on 27 October 2026 at RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne. Union Berlin are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This round of 32 fixture in DFB Pokal is listed as 1. FC Köln - Union Berlin. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
1. FC Köln: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (26 scored and 41 conceded in 20 matches, 1.3 and 2.05 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Union Berlin: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (40 scored and 54 conceded in 30 matches, 1.33 and 1.8 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | 1. FC Köln | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDLD | DWWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 7 | 3 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 20 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.3 / 2.05 | 1.33 / 1.8 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.7 | 1.13 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 42% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 61%.
- First goal: Leans Union Berlin's way at 51%.
The call
The model edges towards Union Berlin at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: 1. FC Köln or Union Berlin?
Union Berlin, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 34% 1. FC Köln, 24% the draw and 42% Union Berlin.
When and where is 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin being played?
27 October 2026 at RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin 2-2 1. FC Köln on 02 May 2026.
What is the recent form of 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin?
1. FC Köln have taken 5 points from their last five (LWDLD), Union Berlin 7 from theirs (DWWLL). Most recently 1. FC Köln took a 0-1 defeat away at Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin a 0-0 draw at home to Borussia Dortmund.
How many goals are expected in 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.20 for 1. FC Köln and 2.00 for Union Berlin. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 61%, so its call is yes.