Tunisia vs Mali — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 48% for Tunisia vs Mali. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Mali travel to Tunisia on 3 October 2026. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 48%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This friendly international fixture in Friendlies is listed as Tunisia - Mali. Kick-off is 12:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Tunisia: they come in on two successive draws, following three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored five and conceded 15, with none clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Mali: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and one defeat from the last four, worth 5 points. Across those four they scored three and conceded three, with two clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Tunisia | Mali |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDLLL | DWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 15 | 3 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 32% | 19% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.00, over 2.5 goals at 14% and both teams to score at 45%.
- First goal: Leans Tunisia's way at 56%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Mali's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Tunisia or Mali?
Neither side. Our model splits it 32% Tunisia, 48% the draw and 19% Mali, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Tunisia vs Mali being played?
3 October 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Tunisia and Mali?
Mali 1-1 Tunisia on 03 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Tunisia and Mali?
Tunisia have taken 2 points from their last five (DDLLL), Mali 5 from theirs (DWLD). Most recently Tunisia took a 2-2 draw at home to Botswana and Mali a 0-0 draw away at Liberia.
How many goals are expected in Tunisia vs Mali?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.00 — 0.50 for Tunisia and 0.50 for Mali. It rates over 2.5 goals at 14%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 45%, so its call is no.