Réal Bamako vs ES Zarzis: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Réal Bamako the pick at 47% for Réal Bamako vs ES Zarzis. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
ES Zarzis travel to Réal Bamako on 24 October 2026. Réal Bamako are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This 2nd preliminary round fixture in CAF Confederation Cup is listed as Réal Bamako - ES Zarzis. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Réal Bamako: they come in on the back of a win, following three wins and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored ten and conceded two, with three clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
ES Zarzis: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded seven, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Réal Bamako | ES Zarzis |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWWW | LWLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 2 | 4 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 27% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.70, over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 46%.
- First goal: Leans Réal Bamako's way at 54%.
The call
The model tilts to Réal Bamako at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Réal Bamako's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Réal Bamako or ES Zarzis?
Réal Bamako, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% Réal Bamako, 26% the draw and 27% ES Zarzis.
When and where is Réal Bamako vs ES Zarzis being played?
24 October 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Have Réal Bamako and ES Zarzis met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Réal Bamako and ES Zarzis?
Réal Bamako have taken 13 points from their last five (WDWWW), ES Zarzis 3 from theirs (LWLLL). Most recently Réal Bamako took a 3-1 win away at ES Zarzis and ES Zarzis a 1-3 defeat at home to Réal Bamako.
How many goals are expected in Réal Bamako vs ES Zarzis?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.70 — 1.35 for Réal Bamako and 1.35 for ES Zarzis. It rates over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 46%, so its call is no.