Al Merreikh vs Horoya match summary and prediction — CAF Champions League
Our model makes Al Merreikh the pick at 44% for Al Merreikh vs Horoya. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Horoya travel to Al Merreikh on 24 October 2026 at Al Merreikh Stadium, Omdurman. Al Merreikh are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This 2nd preliminary round fixture in CAF Champions League is listed as Al Merreikh - Horoya. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Al Merreikh: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, one draw and one defeat from the last three, worth 4 points. Across those three they scored one and conceded one, with two clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Horoya: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored six and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Al Merreikh | Horoya |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDW | WWLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 1 / 1 | 6 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 30% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.00, over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams to score at 45%.
- First goal: Leans Al Merreikh's way at 56%.
The call
The model edges towards Al Merreikh at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Horoya's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Al Merreikh's way, especially at Al Merreikh Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Al Merreikh or Horoya?
Al Merreikh, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Al Merreikh, 26% the draw and 30% Horoya.
When and where is Al Merreikh vs Horoya being played?
24 October 2026 at Al Merreikh Stadium, Omdurman, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Al Merreikh and Horoya?
Horoya 1-0 Al Merreikh on 18 October 2026.
What is the recent form of Al Merreikh and Horoya?
Al Merreikh have taken 4 points from their last three (LDW), Horoya 9 from theirs (WWLLW). Most recently Al Merreikh took a 0-1 defeat away at Horoya and Horoya a 1-0 win at home to Al Merreikh.
How many goals are expected in Al Merreikh vs Horoya?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.00 — 0.00 for Al Merreikh and 1.00 for Horoya. It rates over 2.5 goals at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 45%, so its call is no.