LDU de Quito vs Macara — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes LDU de Quito the pick at 45% for LDU de Quito vs Macara. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
LDU de Quito host Macara on 24 October 2026 at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito. LDU de Quito are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This championship group 4 fixture in Liga Pro is listed as LDU de Quito - Macara. Kick-off is 21:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
LDU de Quito: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (35 scored and 23 conceded in 30 matches, 1.17 and 0.77 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.4 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +7.
Macara: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (37 scored and 33 conceded in 30 matches, 1.23 and 1.1 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.0 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +8.
Side by side
| Statistic | LDU de Quito | Macara |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +7 | +8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWWD | WWWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 6 | 6 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 30 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.17 / 0.77 | 1.23 / 1.1 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.8 | 1.57 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 53.4 | 57.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 45% | 28% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: LDU de Quito 53.4 versus Macara 57.0, a gap of 3.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans LDU de Quito's way at 56%.
The call
The model edges towards LDU de Quito at 45%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts LDU de Quito's way, especially at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: LDU de Quito or Macara?
LDU de Quito, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 45% LDU de Quito, 27% the draw and 28% Macara.
When and where is LDU de Quito vs Macara being played?
24 October 2026 at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito, kick-off 21:30 UTC.
Have LDU de Quito and Macara met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of LDU de Quito and Macara?
LDU de Quito have taken 11 points from their last five (DWWWD), Macara 12 from theirs (WWWWL). Most recently LDU de Quito took a 1-1 draw away at Aucas and Macara a 1-0 win at home to Independiente del Valle.
How many goals are expected in LDU de Quito vs Macara?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.20 for LDU de Quito and 1.40 for Macara. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.