Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Independiente del Valle the pick at 59% for Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Independiente del Valle face LDU de Quito on 1 November 2026 at Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito. Independiente del Valle are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 59%. This championship group 5 fixture in Liga Pro is listed as Independiente del Valle - LDU de Quito. Kick-off is 18:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Independiente del Valle: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (71 scored and 39 conceded in 35 matches, 2.03 and 1.11 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 68.3 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +40.
LDU de Quito: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 25 conceded in 31 matches, 1.16 and 0.81 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.4 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +7.
Side by side
| Statistic | Independiente del Valle | LDU de Quito |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 5th |
| Goal difference | +40 | +7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDLWW | DLDWW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 2 | 8 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 35 | 31 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.03 / 1.11 | 1.16 / 0.81 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.31 | 1.74 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 68.3 | 53.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 59% | 20% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Independiente del Valle one win, LDU de Quito one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: LDU de Quito 0-2 Independiente del Valle on 08 August 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Independiente del Valle 68.3 versus LDU de Quito 53.4, a gap of 14.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Independiente del Valle's way at 63%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Independiente del Valle at 59%, a gap of 37 percentage points to the next outcome. Independiente del Valle's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Independiente del Valle's way, especially at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Independiente del Valle or LDU de Quito?
Independiente del Valle, with an implied win probability of roughly 59%. The full split is 59% Independiente del Valle, 22% the draw and 20% LDU de Quito.
When and where is Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito being played?
1 November 2026 at Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito, kick-off 18:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Independiente del Valle and LDU de Quito?
LDU de Quito 0-2 Independiente del Valle on 08 August 2026.
What is the recent form of Independiente del Valle and LDU de Quito?
Independiente del Valle have taken 10 points from their last five (WDLWW), LDU de Quito 8 from theirs (DLDWW). Most recently Independiente del Valle took a 3-0 win away at Delfin SC and LDU de Quito a 2-2 draw away at Universidad Catolica.
How many goals are expected in Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.40 for Independiente del Valle and 1.00 for LDU de Quito. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.