Universidad Catolica vs Aucas — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Universidad Catolica the pick at 48% for Universidad Catolica vs Aucas. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Universidad Catolica face Aucas on 1 November 2026. Universidad Catolica are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This championship group 5 fixture in Liga Pro is listed as Universidad Catolica - Aucas. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Universidad Catolica: they come in on three successive draws, following two defeats before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (42 scored and 24 conceded in 25 matches, 1.68 and 0.96 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 67.7 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +24.
Aucas: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 27 conceded in 25 matches, 1.12 and 1.08 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.2 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Universidad Catolica | Aucas |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 4th |
| Goal difference | +24 | +5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDDLL | LDLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 6 | 3 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 25 | 25 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.68 / 0.96 | 1.12 / 1.08 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.64 | 1.52 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 67.7 | 56.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 20% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Universidad Catolica none wins, Aucas one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Universidad Catolica 1-1 Aucas on 03 September 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Universidad Catolica 67.7 versus Aucas 56.2, a gap of 11.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.40, over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams to score at 46%.
- First goal: Leans Universidad Catolica's way at 53%.
The call
The model tilts to Universidad Catolica at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Universidad Catolica or Aucas?
Universidad Catolica, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% Universidad Catolica, 32% the draw and 20% Aucas.
When and where is Universidad Catolica vs Aucas being played?
1 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Universidad Catolica and Aucas?
Universidad Catolica 1-1 Aucas on 03 September 2026.
What is the recent form of Universidad Catolica and Aucas?
Universidad Catolica have taken 3 points from their last five (DDDLL), Aucas 2 from theirs (LDLLD). Most recently Universidad Catolica took a 2-2 draw at home to LDU de Quito and Aucas a 0-4 defeat at home to Barcelona SC.
How many goals are expected in Universidad Catolica vs Aucas?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.40 — 1.00 for Universidad Catolica and 0.40 for Aucas. It rates over 2.5 goals at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 46%, so its call is no.