Aucas vs Independiente del Valle: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Independiente del Valle the pick at 50% for Aucas vs Independiente del Valle. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Independiente del Valle travel to Aucas on 8 November 2026 at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito. Independiente del Valle are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This championship group 6 fixture in Liga Pro is listed as Aucas - Independiente del Valle. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Aucas: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 28 conceded in 26 matches, 1.15 and 1.08 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.2 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +5.
Independiente del Valle: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (73 scored and 39 conceded in 36 matches, 2.03 and 1.08 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 68.3 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +40.
Side by side
| Statistic | Aucas | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 1st |
| Goal difference | +5 | +40 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDLL | WWDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 10 | 7 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 26 | 36 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.15 / 1.08 | 2.03 / 1.08 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.58 | 2.33 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.2 | 68.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 22% | 50% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Aucas 56.2 versus Independiente del Valle 68.3, a gap of 12.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 48%.
- First goal: Leans Independiente del Valle's way at 55%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Independiente del Valle at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Independiente del Valle's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Aucas or Independiente del Valle?
Independiente del Valle, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 22% Aucas, 28% the draw and 50% Independiente del Valle.
When and where is Aucas vs Independiente del Valle being played?
8 November 2026 at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Aucas and Independiente del Valle?
Independiente del Valle 2-2 Aucas on 14 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Aucas and Independiente del Valle?
Aucas have taken 4 points from their last five (WLDLL), Independiente del Valle 10 from theirs (WWDLW). Most recently Aucas took a 2-1 win away at Universidad Catolica and Independiente del Valle a 2-0 win at home to LDU de Quito.
How many goals are expected in Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 0.80 for Aucas and 1.60 for Independiente del Valle. It rates over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 48%, so its call is no.