Macara vs Universidad Catolica: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Macara the pick at 52% for Macara vs Universidad Catolica. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Universidad Catolica travel to Macara on 8 November 2026 at Estadio Bellavista, Ambato. Macara are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 52%. This championship group 6 fixture in Liga Pro is listed as Macara - Universidad Catolica. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Macara: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (42 scored and 34 conceded in 32 matches, 1.31 and 1.06 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.0 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +8.
Universidad Catolica: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (43 scored and 26 conceded in 26 matches, 1.65 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 67.7 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +24.
Side by side
| Statistic | Macara | Universidad Catolica |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +8 | +24 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWW | LDDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 15 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 2 | 4 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 32 | 26 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.31 / 1.06 | 1.65 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.66 | 1.58 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 57.0 | 67.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 52% | 22% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Macara none wins, Universidad Catolica one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Macara 1-1 Universidad Catolica on 18 August 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Macara 57.0 versus Universidad Catolica 67.7, a gap of 10.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 50%.
- First goal: Leans Macara's way at 57%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Macara at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Macara's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Macara's way, especially at Estadio Bellavista.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Macara or Universidad Catolica?
Macara, with an implied win probability of roughly 52%. The full split is 52% Macara, 26% the draw and 22% Universidad Catolica.
When and where is Macara vs Universidad Catolica being played?
8 November 2026 at Estadio Bellavista, Ambato, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Macara and Universidad Catolica?
Macara 1-1 Universidad Catolica on 18 August 2026.
What is the recent form of Macara and Universidad Catolica?
Macara have taken 15 points from their last five (WWWWW), Universidad Catolica 3 from theirs (LDDDL). Most recently Macara took a 3-0 win at home to Barcelona SC and Universidad Catolica a 1-2 defeat at home to Aucas.
How many goals are expected in Macara vs Universidad Catolica?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 2.20 for Macara and 1.00 for Universidad Catolica. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 50%, so its call is no.