Palmeiras vs Fluminense: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Palmeiras the pick at 68% for Palmeiras vs Fluminense. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Fluminense travel to Palmeiras on 22 October 2026 at Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo. Palmeiras are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 68%. This semi finals fixture in CONMEBOL Libertadores is listed as Palmeiras - Fluminense. Kick-off is 00:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Palmeiras: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (73 scored and 33 conceded in 46 matches, 1.59 and 0.72 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.6 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +5.
Fluminense: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (52 scored and 43 conceded in 43 matches, 1.21 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.3 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Palmeiras | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +5 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWD | LLWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 2 | 9 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 46 | 43 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.59 / 0.72 | 1.21 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.04 | 1.63 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 59.6 | 48.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 68% | 6% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 5): Palmeiras two wins, Fluminense two wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Palmeiras 2-1 Fluminense on 26 February 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.6 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the five — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Palmeiras 59.6 versus Fluminense 48.3, a gap of 11.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 21% and both teams to score at 24%.
- First goal: Leans Palmeiras' way at 78%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Palmeiras at 68%, a gap of 41 percentage points to the next outcome. Palmeiras' form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Palmeiras's way, especially at Nubank Parque.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Palmeiras or Fluminense?
Palmeiras, with an implied win probability of roughly 68%. The full split is 68% Palmeiras, 27% the draw and 6% Fluminense.
When and where is Palmeiras vs Fluminense being played?
22 October 2026 at Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
Palmeiras 2-1 Fluminense on 26 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Palmeiras and Fluminense?
Palmeiras have taken 13 points from their last five (WWWWD), Fluminense 6 from theirs (LLWWL). Most recently Palmeiras took a 2-0 win away at Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense a 1-2 defeat at home to Palmeiras.
How many goals are expected in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 1.80 for Palmeiras and 0.00 for Fluminense. It rates over 2.5 goals at 21%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 24%, so its call is no.