Everton vs Newcastle: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Newcastle the pick at 49% for Everton vs Newcastle. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Newcastle travel to Everton on 29 October 2026 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool. Newcastle are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This round of 16 fixture in League Cup is listed as Everton - Newcastle. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Everton: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (43 scored and 42 conceded in 33 matches, 1.3 and 1.27 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Newcastle: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (95 scored and 86 conceded in 57 matches, 1.67 and 1.51 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Everton | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDWW | LLWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 6 | 5 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 33 | 57 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.3 / 1.27 | 1.67 / 1.51 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.3 | 1.39 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 32% | 49% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 3 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): Everton three wins, Newcastle two wins, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Newcastle 2-3 Everton on 28 February 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.43 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the seven — broadly an average game for goals.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Newcastle's way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Newcastle at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Everton or Newcastle?
Newcastle, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 32% Everton, 19% the draw and 49% Newcastle.
When and where is Everton vs Newcastle being played?
29 October 2026 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Everton and Newcastle?
Newcastle 2-3 Everton on 28 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Everton and Newcastle?
Everton have taken 7 points from their last five (LLDWW), Newcastle 6 from theirs (LLWLW). Most recently Everton took a 0-2 defeat away at Arsenal and Newcastle a 0-1 defeat at home to Aston Villa.
How many goals are expected in Everton vs Newcastle?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 0.40 for Everton and 1.40 for Newcastle. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.