Argentina vs Bolivia: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Argentina the pick at 72% for Argentina vs Bolivia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Argentina host Bolivia on 1 October 2026 at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes, Cordoba. Argentina are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 72%. This friendly international fixture in Friendlies is listed as Argentina - Bolivia. Kick-off is 00:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Argentina: they come in on the back of a defeat, following four wins before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Across those five they scored eleven and conceded seven, with none clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Bolivia: they come in on three defeats in a row, following two wins before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored six and conceded eleven, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Argentina | Bolivia |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWW | LLLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 7 | 6 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 72% | 4% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.50, over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 29%.
- First goal: Leans Argentina's way at 77%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Argentina at 72%, a gap of 48 percentage points to the next outcome. Argentina's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Argentina's way, especially at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Argentina or Bolivia?
Argentina, with an implied win probability of roughly 72%. The full split is 72% Argentina, 24% the draw and 4% Bolivia.
When and where is Argentina vs Bolivia being played?
1 October 2026 at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes, Cordoba, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Have Argentina and Bolivia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Argentina and Bolivia?
Argentina have taken 12 points from their last five (LWWWW), Bolivia 6 from theirs (LLLWW). Most recently Argentina took a 0-1 defeat away at Spain and Bolivia a 0-4 defeat at home to Algeria.
How many goals are expected in Argentina vs Bolivia?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.50 — 1.50 for Argentina and 0.00 for Bolivia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 74%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 29%, so its call is no.