Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. match summary and prediction — CONMEBOL Libertadores
Our model makes Flamengo the pick at 73% for Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Flamengo face Estudiantes L.P. on 23 October 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro. Flamengo are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 73%. This semi finals fixture in CONMEBOL Libertadores is listed as Flamengo - Estudiantes L.P. Kick-off is 00:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Flamengo: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (72 scored and 28 conceded in 37 matches, 1.95 and 0.76 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 71.3 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +12.
Estudiantes L.P.: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 22 conceded in 30 matches, 1.07 and 0.73 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.9 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Flamengo | Estudiantes L.P. |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +12 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWDW | LDDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 3 | 6 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 37 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.95 / 0.76 | 1.07 / 0.73 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.11 | 1.57 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 71.3 | 51.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 73% | 4% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Flamengo one win, Estudiantes L.P. none wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Flamengo 1-0 Estudiantes L.P. on 21 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Flamengo 71.3 versus Estudiantes L.P. 51.9, a gap of 19.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 29%.
- First goal: Leans Flamengo's way at 78%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Flamengo at 73%, a gap of 50 percentage points to the next outcome. Flamengo's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Flamengo's way, especially at Estádio do Maracanã.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Flamengo or Estudiantes L.P.?
Flamengo, with an implied win probability of roughly 73%. The full split is 73% Flamengo, 23% the draw and 4% Estudiantes L.P.
When and where is Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. being played?
23 October 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Flamengo and Estudiantes L.P.?
Flamengo 1-0 Estudiantes L.P. on 21 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Flamengo and Estudiantes L.P.?
Flamengo have taken 11 points from their last five (WDWDW), Estudiantes L.P. 5 from theirs (LDDWL). Most recently Flamengo took a 3-0 win away at Bahia and Estudiantes L.P. a 1-2 defeat at home to San Lorenzo.
How many goals are expected in Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P.?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 2.60 for Flamengo and 0.60 for Estudiantes L.P. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 29%, so its call is no.