Hadiya Hosaena vs Fasil Ketema — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 41% for Hadiya Hosaena vs Fasil Ketema. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Hadiya Hosaena host Fasil Ketema on 24 October 2026. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 41%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 4 fixture in Premier League is listed as Hadiya Hosaena - Fasil Ketema. Kick-off is 12:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Hadiya Hosaena: they come in on the back of a draw, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, three draws and one defeat from the last four, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those four they scored two and conceded three, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.1 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -1.
Fasil Ketema: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and one defeat from the last four, worth 5 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those four they scored two and conceded two, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.7 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Hadiya Hosaena | Fasil Ketema |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 11th |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDD | DDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 3 | 2 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 28.1 | 31.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 33% | 26% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Hadiya Hosaena 28.1 versus Fasil Ketema 31.7, a gap of 3.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.35, over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 50%.
- First goal: Leans Hadiya Hosaena's way at 45%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards a draw at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Fasil Ketema's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Hadiya Hosaena or Fasil Ketema?
Neither side. Our model splits it 33% Hadiya Hosaena, 41% the draw and 26% Fasil Ketema, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Hadiya Hosaena vs Fasil Ketema being played?
24 October 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
Have Hadiya Hosaena and Fasil Ketema met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Hadiya Hosaena and Fasil Ketema?
Hadiya Hosaena have taken 3 points from their last four (DLDD), Fasil Ketema 5 from theirs (DDWL). Most recently Hadiya Hosaena took a 1-1 draw at home to Welayta Dicha and Fasil Ketema a 1-1 draw away at Halaba Ketema.
How many goals are expected in Hadiya Hosaena vs Fasil Ketema?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.35 — 0.00 for Hadiya Hosaena and 1.35 for Fasil Ketema. It rates over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 50%, so its call is no.