Mebrat Hayl vs Kedus Giorgis — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Mebrat Hayl the pick at 44% for Mebrat Hayl vs Kedus Giorgis. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Mebrat Hayl face Kedus Giorgis on 1 November 2026. Mebrat Hayl are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 5 fixture in Premier League is listed as Mebrat Hayl - Kedus Giorgis. Kick-off is 12:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Mebrat Hayl: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored three and conceded one, with four clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.6 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +1.
Kedus Giorgis: they come in on two successive draws, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, four draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored six and conceded seven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Mebrat Hayl | Kedus Giorgis |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 12th |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDLW | DDLDD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 1 | 6 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 4 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 48.6 | 34.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 29% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Mebrat Hayl 48.6 versus Kedus Giorgis 34.8, a gap of 13.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.70, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Mebrat Hayl's way at 53%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Mebrat Hayl at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Mebrat Hayl's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Mebrat Hayl or Kedus Giorgis?
Mebrat Hayl, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Mebrat Hayl, 27% the draw and 29% Kedus Giorgis.
When and where is Mebrat Hayl vs Kedus Giorgis being played?
1 November 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
Have Mebrat Hayl and Kedus Giorgis met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Mebrat Hayl and Kedus Giorgis?
Mebrat Hayl have taken 10 points from their last five (WWDLW), Kedus Giorgis 4 from theirs (DDLDD). Most recently Mebrat Hayl took a 1-0 win away at Ethiopia Bunna and Kedus Giorgis a 2-2 draw at home to Sheger Ketema.
How many goals are expected in Mebrat Hayl vs Kedus Giorgis?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.70 — 1.35 for Mebrat Hayl and 1.35 for Kedus Giorgis. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.