Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Fasil Ketema the pick at 43% for Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Fasil Ketema host Bahardar on 31 October 2026. Fasil Ketema are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This matchday 5 fixture in Premier League is listed as Fasil Ketema - Bahardar. Kick-off is 12:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Fasil Ketema: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and two draws before that. That is one win, two draws and one defeat from the last four, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those four they scored two and conceded two, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.4 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -1.
Bahardar: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. Across those four they scored six and conceded four, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.5 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Fasil Ketema | Bahardar |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDDW | WLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 2 | 6 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 31.4 | 45.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 31% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Fasil Ketema 31.4 versus Bahardar 45.5, a gap of 14.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.35, over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams to score at 48%.
- First goal: Leans Fasil Ketema's way at 49%.
The call
The model edges towards Fasil Ketema at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Bahardar's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Fasil Ketema or Bahardar?
Fasil Ketema, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Fasil Ketema, 26% the draw and 31% Bahardar.
When and where is Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar being played?
31 October 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
Have Fasil Ketema and Bahardar met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Fasil Ketema and Bahardar?
Fasil Ketema have taken 5 points from their last four (LDDW), Bahardar 7 from theirs (WLWD). Most recently Fasil Ketema took a 0-1 defeat away at Hadiya Hosaena and Bahardar a 3-1 win away at Welayta Dicha.
How many goals are expected in Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.35 — 1.35 for Fasil Ketema and 2.00 for Bahardar. It rates over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 48%, so its call is no.