Sheger Ketema vs Negelle Arsi — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Sheger Ketema the pick at 44% for Sheger Ketema vs Negelle Arsi. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Negelle Arsi travel to Sheger Ketema on 30 October 2026. Sheger Ketema are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 5 fixture in Premier League is listed as Sheger Ketema - Negelle Arsi. Kick-off is 12:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Sheger Ketema: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Across those five they scored five and conceded one, with four clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.3 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of 0.
Negelle Arsi: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored six and conceded four, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.4 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Sheger Ketema | Negelle Arsi |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 5th |
| Goal difference | 0 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWWW | WDDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 1 | 6 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 4 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.3 | 42.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 29% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Sheger Ketema 38.3 versus Negelle Arsi 42.4, a gap of 4.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.70, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Sheger Ketema's way at 53%.
The call
The model edges towards Sheger Ketema at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sheger Ketema or Negelle Arsi?
Sheger Ketema, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Sheger Ketema, 27% the draw and 29% Negelle Arsi.
When and where is Sheger Ketema vs Negelle Arsi being played?
30 October 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
Have Sheger Ketema and Negelle Arsi met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Sheger Ketema and Negelle Arsi?
Sheger Ketema have taken 10 points from their last five (LDWWW), Negelle Arsi 8 from theirs (WDDLW). Most recently Sheger Ketema took a 0-1 defeat away at Mebrat Hayl and Negelle Arsi a 3-0 win away at Ethiopia Bunna.
How many goals are expected in Sheger Ketema vs Negelle Arsi?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.70 — 1.35 for Sheger Ketema and 1.35 for Negelle Arsi. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.