Roda vs De Graafschap match summary and prediction — KNVB Beker
There is barely anything between Roda and De Graafschap on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Roda host De Graafschap on 27 October 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade. De Graafschap are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 39%. This round of 64 fixture in KNVB Beker is listed as Roda - De Graafschap. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Roda: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 26 conceded in 19 matches, 1.32 and 1.37 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
De Graafschap: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 23 conceded in 16 matches, 2.0 and 1.44 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Roda | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDLWD | LWDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 4 | 7 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 19 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.32 / 1.37 | 2.0 / 1.44 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.21 | 1.62 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 39% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 62%.
- First goal: Leans Roda's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. De Graafschap is the nominal pick at 39%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Roda or De Graafschap?
De Graafschap, with an implied win probability of roughly 39%. The full split is 38% Roda, 23% the draw and 39% De Graafschap.
When and where is Roda vs De Graafschap being played?
27 October 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Roda and De Graafschap met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Roda and De Graafschap?
Roda have taken 8 points from their last five (WDLWD), De Graafschap 7 from theirs (LWDWL). Most recently Roda took a 2-1 win away at Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap a 1-2 defeat away at Jong Ajax.
How many goals are expected in Roda vs De Graafschap?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.80 for Roda and 1.20 for De Graafschap. It rates over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 62%, so its call is yes.