ATK Mohun Bagan vs Odisha match summary and prediction — Indian Super League
Our model makes ATK Mohun Bagan the pick at 66% for ATK Mohun Bagan vs Odisha. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
ATK Mohun Bagan host Odisha on 5 November 2026 at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan, Kolkata. ATK Mohun Bagan are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 66%. This matchday 5 fixture in Indian Super League is listed as ATK Mohun Bagan - Odisha. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
ATK Mohun Bagan: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 7 conceded in eleven matches, 1.82 and 0.64 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.5 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +2.
Odisha: they come in on two successive draws, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 17 conceded in ten matches, 1.1 and 1.7 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.4 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | ATK Mohun Bagan | Odisha |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 9th |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWLW | DDLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 3 | 4 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 11 | 10 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.82 / 0.64 | 1.1 / 1.7 |
| Points per game (2025) | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 55.5 | 31.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 66% | 12% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: ATK Mohun Bagan 55.5 versus Odisha 31.4, a gap of 24.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 45%.
- First goal: Leans ATK Mohun Bagan's way at 68%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards ATK Mohun Bagan at 66%, a gap of 45 percentage points to the next outcome. ATK Mohun Bagan's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts ATK Mohun Bagan's way, especially at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: ATK Mohun Bagan or Odisha?
ATK Mohun Bagan, with an implied win probability of roughly 66%. The full split is 66% ATK Mohun Bagan, 21% the draw and 12% Odisha.
When and where is ATK Mohun Bagan vs Odisha being played?
5 November 2026 at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan, Kolkata, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between ATK Mohun Bagan and Odisha?
ATK Mohun Bagan 5-1 Odisha on 06 March 2026.
What is the recent form of ATK Mohun Bagan and Odisha?
ATK Mohun Bagan have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWLW), Odisha 3 from theirs (DDLDL). Most recently ATK Mohun Bagan took a 2-1 win at home to Minerva Punjab and Odisha a 0-0 draw at home to NorthEast United.
How many goals are expected in ATK Mohun Bagan vs Odisha?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 1.00 for ATK Mohun Bagan and 0.80 for Odisha. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 45%, so its call is no.