Dumbarton vs Keith match summary and prediction — FA Cup
Our model makes Dumbarton the pick at 47% for Dumbarton vs Keith. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Keith travel to Dumbarton on 24 October 2026. Dumbarton are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This round of 128 fixture in FA Cup is listed as Dumbarton - Keith. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Dumbarton: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored seven and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Keith: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored nine and conceded twelve, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Dumbarton | Keith |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLLWW | WLWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 10 | 9 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 30% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.70, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Dumbarton's way at 56%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Dumbarton at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Keith's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Dumbarton or Keith?
Dumbarton, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% Dumbarton, 23% the draw and 30% Keith.
When and where is Dumbarton vs Keith being played?
24 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Dumbarton and Keith met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Dumbarton and Keith?
Dumbarton have taken 7 points from their last five (DLLWW), Keith 9 from theirs (WLWWL). Most recently Dumbarton took a 1-1 draw at home to Stirling Albion and Keith a 6-4 win at home to Invergordon.
How many goals are expected in Dumbarton vs Keith?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.70 — 1.35 for Dumbarton and 1.35 for Keith. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.