Alcazar vs Malaga: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Malaga the pick at 48% for Alcazar vs Malaga. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Alcazar face Malaga on 27 October 2026. Malaga are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This round of 128 fixture in Copa del Rey is listed as Alcazar - Malaga. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Alcazar: they come in on a two-match winning sequence. That is two wins, no draws and no defeats from the last two, worth 6 points. Across those two they scored three and conceded one, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Malaga: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored five and conceded eleven, with none clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Alcazar | Malaga |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WW | LDLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 1 | 5 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 27% | 48% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.35, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Malaga's way at 56%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Malaga at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Alcazar's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Alcazar or Malaga?
Malaga, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 27% Alcazar, 25% the draw and 48% Malaga.
When and where is Alcazar vs Malaga being played?
27 October 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Have Alcazar and Malaga met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Alcazar and Malaga?
Alcazar have taken 6 points from their last two (WW), Malaga 2 from theirs (LDLLD). Most recently Alcazar took a 1-0 win at home to Talayuela and Malaga a 2-5 defeat at home to Real Sociedad.
How many goals are expected in Alcazar vs Malaga?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.35 — 1.35 for Alcazar and 1.00 for Malaga. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.